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It’s almost hard to believe, but the Denver Broncos are one of the worst bets in football as of late, winning just four of their last 17 games straight up, going just 2-14-1 against the spread in the process. And they’ve been lousy at home, going 3-5 SU and 1-6-1 ATS their last eight times out at Mile High. What chance does Denver have against the 5-0 Rams on Sunday afternoon?
NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 26.8-21.2 Rams (NFL picks on every game).
Why the Rams can cover the spread
The Rams remained one of the last two undefeated teams in the league this season with a 33-31 win at Seattle last week. Los Angeles spotted the Seahawks the first seven points of the game, battled to a 17-17 tie at the half, then trailed 31-24 into the fourth quarter. But the Rams scored nine points over their next two possessions and secured the victory with a defensive stop and a 4th-and-1 conversion near midfield with just under two minutes to go.
For the game, Los Angeles logged 468 yards of offense, 155 on the ground and 313 through the air, and it held a 30-20 edge in first downs. If the Rams hadn’t thrown an interception from the Seattle 2-yard line and later settled for a field goal from the Seahawks’ 1-yard line they may have covered the spread as seven-point favorites.
Los Angeles has now scored at least 33 points every game this season.
Why the Broncos can cover the spread
The Broncos opened this season 2-0 but are now trying to halt a three-game losing streak, after falling to the Jets in New Jersey last week 34-16. Denver turned an early takeaway into a touchdown and a 7-0 lead but gave up two long scores from scrimmage early in the second quarter to fall down and never recovered.
On the day the Broncos produced 436 yards of offense, held a 26-18 edge in first downs and won time of possession by a 31/29 split. But they were stopped twice on downs inside New York territory when the game was still within reach, and the defense just couldn’t stop the Jets’ running game, in an uncharacteristically bad performance.
The Broncos had out-rushed each of their first four opponents this season.
Two weeks ago Denver led the only other undefeated team in the league, the Chiefs, by 10 points in the fourth quarter, but gave up the last 14 points of the game to lose 27-23.
Smart betting pick
The Rams are rolling while the Broncos are reeling. But this one’s about pride, especially for that Denver defense. Los Angeles may still win this game but smart money bets the Broncos plus the points.
NFL betting trends
The visiting team is 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS in its last nine games in this matchup.
The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Broncos’ last 11 games in October.
The Rams are 5-0 SU in their last five games.
All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week’s top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.